RALEIGH – Republican leaders who secured majorities in both chambers of the N.C. General Assembly for the first time in 140 years after the 2010 elections appear poised to preserve much of those gains in 2012, thanks in part to redistricting.

The GOP surged at the right time two years ago. Its reward was holding the pens that redrew boundaries for House and Senate districts based on once-a-decade Census figures.

They fashioned lines that – with the current political climate – make it a long shot for Democrats to take back control of either chamber on election night, according to campaign workers and legislators from both parties and North Carolina political experts. Republican candidates overall also hold a financial advantage over their Democratic counterparts.

Republicans currently hold 68 of the 120 House seats and control 31 of the 50 in the Senate – almost mirror images of the seat advantages Democrats held in 2010.

“I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of dramatic change, and primarily it’s because of redistricting,” said Thom Little, a lecturer at the University of North Carolina–Greensboro whose focus includes state legislatures. The updated maps expanded the number of districts that Republicans can feel secure in winning and fill districts surrounding them with more Democratic voters.

Dozens of Democrats and civil rights and election reform groups challenged the maps in late 2011 as discriminatory and unconstitutional. Republicans say the maps are fair and legal. The new boundaries are being used while the lawsuits wind through the courts. The Republican advantage could be short-lived if the maps are struck down and maps must be redrawn for 2014.

For now, Democrats appear to be taking a measured approach to winning back either or both chambers, with some suggesting it may take another two-year cycle before that can be accomplished.

“While it’s certainly an uphill battle in many places, it’s not inconceivable that we could make progress,” North Carolina Democratic Party communications director Walton Robinson said, adding: “I do feel confident that we’re going to surprise the Republicans in some places.”

Cautious Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, said for now the GOP is “still in good shape to hold onto a majority” in his chamber, which would be 26 seats. “How far beyond 26 it goes, we’ll just have to wait see how the votes are counted.”

A successful campaign for Senate Republicans likely would mean retaining their three-fifths majority, or 30 seats, which mark the constitutional threshold that allowed Republicans to override Democratic Gov. Beverly Perdue’s vetoes and to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot to ban gay marriage.

House Republicans would need 72 seats to reach its supermajority. Such levels, however, may not be as crucial to the GOP if fellow Republican Pat McCrory is elected governor next month.

House Republican Caucus Director Matt Bales sounded more confident the GOP would make gains in his chamber. “Our caucus set out on a mission and it was to protect and grow our majority, and we are confident that we will be able to protect and grow our majority,” he said.

More than 40 of the Legislature’s 170 members serving in early 2011 are not on the fall ballot because of death, retirement, primary election losses or running for another elected office. Many who aren’t running were forced out after being drawn into a district with another incumbent.

Because more first-time candidates are running, it’s not as easy to predict how they’ll perform in new districts, campaigners said. But Little said Republicans may find it difficult to expand their margins because so many of their previous targets are no longer in the Legislature.

House Minority Whip Deborah Ross, D-Wake, who has been raising money to help other Democratic candidates, said she would consider it a great election night if House Democrats could trim the GOP advantage to 64-56.

“We just don’t know how things are going to shake out,” said Ross, who is unopposed for her central Raleigh seat.

Ross said picking up Republican seats after redistricting would show voters don’t like the actions of the GOP-led General Assembly for the past two years. Democrats say those include spending cuts in public education and the GOP’s handling of the state economy. Instead of passing jobs bills, Democrats argue, the GOP decided to eliminate thousands of state government and public school positions and pass controversial items such as abortion restrictions that won’t sit too well in districts with lots of unaffiliated voters.

“There are moderates in Republican swing districts who did not vote the way their constituents would have wanted them to vote,” Ross said.

Republicans contend government job losses are overstated and spending cuts necessary to get the state’s fiscal house in order and ease what had become an onerous tax burden on individuals and small businesses under Democratic rule. The GOP allowed a temporary penny sales tax increase and income tax surcharges to expire.

“We’re saying a lot of the same things that we were saying in 2010 about the management that existed in state government in the past,” Berger said. “We inherited a $2.5 billion hole and we balanced the budget” and passed an education plan that focuses on public school performance, he added.

While local issues also play significant roles in legislative races, Little questioned the effectiveness of communicating political messages about the Legislature when the presidential and governor’s races have dominated the airwaves this fall.

“It doesn’t really matter very much,” Little said. “The people aren’t listening.”