When, as a child, I was confused about some problem, my father would say, “Son, maybe you’re missing the forest because of the trees.” Of course, what he meant was that I was too focused on the small pieces (the trees) of the problem to see the answer in the big picture (the forest).

The same could be said of many of today’s economic questions. Various groups debate causes and solutions with no apparent agreement. Are they putting too much attention on the trees and not enough on the forest?

A strong argument can be made that the answer is yes, and the forest that often is missed is demography. Demography is the study of human population and its characteristics. For current economic issues, the important demographic factor is the number of people in various age ranges.

It’s well known that we are an aging society. This is the forest of our future, the increased number of elderly people relative to a decreasing number of those working. This forest will continue to have a profound effect on federal government finances and the continuing debate over the national debt.

The reason is that three big federal government programs – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – are being driven by our aging population. Social Security currently is in good financial shape. But the latest report from the Social Security trustees states the surplus will be exhausted in 2036, after which taxes collected for Social Security only will be able to pay three-fourths of promised benefits.

Medicare already has a funding problem. According to the Social Security trustees, who also oversee Medicare, the program already spends more than it receives in fees.

Medicaid – which spends 26 percent of its funds on the elderly – is totally supported by taxpayer funds.

Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid currently account for 43 percent of federal government spending. With the elderly population growing faster than other age categories, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that these three programs will account for 67 percent of total federal government spending by 2035. This is why most plans for addressing the national debt and federal spending include some modification to these programs.

I think my father was right. Stepping back and looking at the big picture can help us fit the pieces together and perhaps come to some realizations and answers. When this step back is done today, some say the pieces fit together to spell “demography.” You decide if their sight is clear.

Dr. Mike Walden is a William Neal Reynolds Professor and N.C. Cooperative Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at N.C. State University.