North Carolina 24, Rutgers 22

First, North Carolina is lucky to have escaped with a win. The Tar Heels survived at least a dozen mental mistakes that, against a better team, would have cost them the game. UNC turned the ball over five times – twice on fumbles after first downs – and gave the Scarlet Knights nearly 100 free yards with penalties.

Rutgers' front seven gave North Carolina difficulty in its run game, and exposed several problems UNC will have to correct if it expects a win in Atlanta against Georgia Tech on Sept. 24.

But let's get to why the Tar Heels won this game, and why it will win games to come.

The Coples Effect. Defensive end Quinton Coples is beyond invaluable for North Carolina. Coples has only three tackles and two sacks through two games, but his mere presence makes UNC's defense effective, like these two plays:

Situation: Rutgers ball on its own 33. Third down and 13. 7-0 North Carolina.

Play: The Scarlet Knights, in shotgun with a running back to each side of quarterback Chas Dodd, are in an obvious passing situation. The Tar Heels know it, and call a mildly-aggressive linebacker blitz out of nickel, where they are playing a Cover One.

Rutgers sends both backs to double-team the ends, Coples and Kareem Martin. Because the backs have been exhausted, and are not available for blitz pick-up, there are now three blockers left to pick up three remaining rushers. Linebacker Kevin Reddick runs, untouched, in one of the spaces created in the offensive line, which has been pulled far too wide. Reddick absolutely blasts Dodd, whose pass flies lazy in the air, somehow finding the turf.

Effect: Rutgers is forced to change its passing game plan. The Knights resort to lots of three-step drops, misdirection and shotgun. Dodd is noticeably apprehensive the rest of the half.

Play No. 2:

Situation: Rutgers ball on UNC's 14. Third and goal. 17-12 North Carolina.

Play: The Knights, needing the endzone, come out of shotgun with four wide receivers. The Heels match with a nickel, and blitz three. Coples drops into coverage, but Rutgers' left tackle, forced to show respect, stays with Coples and lets blitzers run past him to both his left and his right.

Effect: Dodd has no choice but to get rid of the ball. He throws a bad pass, which the receiver falls the ground in the process of catching. The Knights settle for a field goal.

Acting Sophomoric. Bryn Renner, who is statistically impressive (85.7 percent completion percentage) is still growing in his decision-making process, and is expectedly hot-and-cold. The good:

Situation: UNC ball on its own 29. Third and one. 0-0.

Play: The Tar Heels play a standard singleback set with two receivers to Renner's left, allowing it many options. The Knights play their base 3-4, and send a weak-side blitz at Renner, who keeps his weight balanced in the face of the pressure. Renner calmly hits Erik Highsmith on a five-yard out route for a first down, but gets hit in the process.

Effect: North Carolina, with a fresh sets of downs, finds single coverage on the very next play. Renner finds it and throws a 66-yard touchdown to Dwight Jones.

And the bad:

Situation: UNC ball on Rutgers' 35. Third and seven. 17-15 North Carolina.

Play: Midway through the third quarter, UNC comes out of a four-wide shotgun set, and Rutgers plays a modified dime, with three lineman and two 'backers. The Knights creep the safety and both linebackers, clearly showing blitz. Renner stays in the play without shifting or adding protection, and a double-team allows one of the two blitzing linebackers in free. Renner escapes the pressure with a roll-out, but compounds the initial mistake by throwing across his body.

Effect: Rutgers picks off the errant pass, and UNC throws away its chance at a long field goal or a punt to pin the Knights. A good chance to extend the lead is wasted.

Left for dead. The most disconcerting thing about UNC's game against Rutgers was its inability to establish the run at all, particularly to the left side. The numbers look OK, but were skewed by two big runs. On its other 27 rushes, the Heels gained only 37 yards. They struggled to block Rutgers' speedy defensive line, which has to worry UNC fans for games against Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Situation: UNC ball on its own 40. First and ten. 7-3 North Carolina.

Play: The Heels play power-I, running a tight end in motion from right to left. The Knights remain in their 3-4, but cheat both safties towards the line-of scrimmage. The strong safety does blitz. North Carolina attempts an edge run to the left, but three Knights are in the backfield as Ryan Houston takes the hand off. He improvises, runs right, and gains a yard.

Effect: Rutgers apparently saw something on film that took away half the field. The blitzed off the left edge all afternoon, and North Carolina never adjusted. It will be interesting to see if Virginia employs the same tactic Saturday in Chapel Hill.

Check back tomorrow for a Reel Talk of N.C. State's game against Wake Forest.